Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 34 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1264 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 1264 ORD 05:58 → LGA 09:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest UA 8157 ORD 17:52 → LGA 21:07 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1264 American Flight history →	ORD 05:58	LGA 09:25	6%	2%	0.7%	62%
DL 2767 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LGA 09:09	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 2617 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LGA 09:11	7%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2633 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LGA 10:14	8%	2%	0.7%	77%
UA 1657 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LGA 10:17	9%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 2723 American Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LGA 10:16	9%	2%	0.7%	79%
UA 2092 United Flight history →	ORD 08:00	LGA 11:17	12%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 1642 Delta	ORD 09:27	LGA 12:41	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2985 Delta Flight history →	ORD 11:30	LGA 15:00	13%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 2917 Delta Flight history →	ORD 10:30	LGA 13:48	13%	3%	0.7%	72%
AA 2941 American	ORD 08:18	LGA 11:34	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 669 United Flight history →	ORD 10:03	LGA 13:26	14%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 2503 Delta Flight history →	ORD 20:10	LGA 23:44	14%	4%	0.7%	58%
UA 1258 United Flight history →	ORD 09:06	LGA 12:21	15%	3%	0.6%	76%
UA 529 United	ORD 10:58	LGA 14:13	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 903 American	ORD 11:23	LGA 14:44	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 1390 Delta Flight history →	ORD 19:05	LGA 22:34	16%	5%	0.7%	64%
AA 3128 American Flight history →	ORD 11:58	LGA 15:14	18%	4%	0.7%	71%
UA 786 United	ORD 12:02	LGA 15:18	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3163 American Flight history →	ORD 12:35	LGA 15:51	20%	4%	0.7%	68%
DL 1631 Delta	ORD 14:26	LGA 17:38	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2827 United	ORD 20:04	LGA 23:23	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 2226 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:32	LGA 20:44	21%	5%	0.7%	57%
UA 2189 United Flight history →	ORD 13:00	LGA 16:22	22%	5%	0.6%	65%
AA 512 American	ORD 13:36	LGA 16:56	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1166 American Flight history →	ORD 19:56	LGA 23:12	22%	5%	0.7%	52%
UA 511 United	ORD 15:52	LGA 19:07	23%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1821 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	LGA 17:22	23%	6%	0.7%	65%
UA 2133 United	ORD 15:18	LGA 18:38	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 673 American Flight history →	ORD 16:43	LGA 19:58	24%	8%	0.7%	47%
UA 456 United	ORD 17:15	LGA 20:37	25%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 866 American	ORD 15:05	LGA 18:14	25%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 774 American Flight history →	ORD 18:30	LGA 21:45	25%	8%	0.7%	58%
UA 8157 United	ORD 17:52	LGA 21:07	30%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON