Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3503 ORD 09:46 → LIT 11:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3561 ORD 19:59 → LIT 21:59 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3503 Envoy	ORD 09:46	LIT 11:36	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3501 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:30	LIT 19:20	11%	3%	0.7%	81%
AA 3561 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:59	LIT 21:59	11%	3%	0.7%	72%
UA 4512 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:40	LIT 10:38	23%	10%	0.5%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON