Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 6349 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 6349 ORD 07:04 → MCI 08:47 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OO 6304 ORD 17:23 → MCI 18:54 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6349 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 07:04	MCI 08:47	7%	2%	0.6%	95%
YX 4384 Republic	ORD 22:40	MCI 00:24	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1484 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	MCI 10:29	8%	2%	0.5%	86%
OO 5717 SkyWest	ORD 07:24	MCI 09:01	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3764 Envoy	ORD 13:47	MCI 15:14	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 561 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	MCI 14:20	10%	3%	0.5%	80%
UA 5997 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:43	MCI 12:19	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
MQ 3545 Envoy	ORD 12:03	MCI 13:26	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 5644 SkyWest	ORD 14:28	MCI 16:11	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 6215 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:10	MCI 11:37	13%	3%	0.7%	57%
UA 664 United Flight history →	ORD 15:52	MCI 17:36	14%	4%	0.5%	68%
OO 5712 SkyWest	ORD 18:08	MCI 19:44	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 8216 United	ORD 20:33	MCI 22:12	20%	5%	0.5%	no record
OO 6304 SkyWest	ORD 17:23	MCI 18:54	20%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON