Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 4802 at 11:48 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19%.

Safest bet that day YX 4802 ORD 11:48 → MDT 14:40 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 533 ORD 14:12 → MDT 17:11 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4802 Republic	ORD 11:48	MDT 14:40	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 3544 Republic	ORD 10:28	MDT 13:20	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 5581 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:52	MDT 09:45	10%	3%	0.7%	77%
AA 1672 American	ORD 08:20	MDT 11:11	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1719 United	ORD 19:11	MDT 22:02	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 3243 American Flight history →	ORD 16:00	MDT 19:05	19%	6%	0.7%	75%
AA 2400 American	ORD 19:24	MDT 22:29	19%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 533 United	ORD 14:12	MDT 17:11	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON