Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: MQ 4018 at 10:13 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4018 ORD 10:13 → MKE 11:08 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6257 ORD 20:57 → MKE 21:39 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4018 Envoy	ORD 10:13	MKE 11:08	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 4984 SkyWest	ORD 07:10	MKE 08:13	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
OO 5838 SkyWest	ORD 06:02	MKE 06:51	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4035 Envoy	ORD 13:25	MKE 14:12	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 757 SkyWest	ORD 22:16	MKE 23:05	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4096 Envoy	ORD 17:28	MKE 18:14	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 5234 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:38	MKE 11:29	16%	3%	0.7%	77%
OO 4990 SkyWest	ORD 11:58	MKE 12:56	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 4711 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:45	MKE 20:56	16%	5%	0.8%	70%
UA 5821 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:09	MKE 10:00	16%	3%	0.7%	73%
UA 5555 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:45	MKE 18:48	18%	6%	0.7%	52%
OO 4909 SkyWest	ORD 20:06	MKE 21:05	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 5933 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:30	MKE 14:36	19%	5%	0.7%	67%
UA 5262 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:46	MKE 17:39	20%	5%	0.7%	76%
UA 5668 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:17	MKE 15:03	23%	5%	0.7%	66%
AA 6257 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 20:57	MKE 21:39	23%	5%	0.7%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON