Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2778 ORD 07:20 → MSY 09:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3256 ORD 22:01 → MSY 00:48 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2778 United	ORD 07:20	MSY 09:49	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1532 United	ORD 10:55	MSY 13:13	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4040 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:33	MSY 10:51	11%	2%	0.8%	86%
OO 5689 SkyWest	ORD 14:18	MSY 16:56	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1761 United Flight history →	ORD 20:11	MSY 22:46	16%	6%	0.7%	63%
AA 3256 American	ORD 22:01	MSY 00:48	16%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON