Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, YX 3526 at 12:20, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


YX 3526 Republic	ORD 12:20	MYR 15:35	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ORD 10:22 → DCA 13:28AA 1200	3h 38m Washington	DCA 17:06 → MYR 18:51AA 5266 · flown by PSA	7h 29m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182	6h 30m	100%	91%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	2h 07m Charlotte	CLT 10:17 → MYR 11:19AA 2431	5h 12m	98%	86%
United Details →	ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856	1h 38m Newark	EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03UA 3589 · flown by Republic	6h 12m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093	6h 47m	99%	84%
American Details →	ORD 09:01 → CLT 12:07AA 2080	3h 50m Charlotte	CLT 15:57 → MYR 17:09AA 2943	7h 08m	99%	83%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → PHL 08:05AA 2970	50m Philadelphia	PHL 08:55 → MYR 10:54AA 5848 · flown by Piedmont	4h 54m	95%	81%
American Details →	ORD 06:26 → PHL 09:51AA 471	1h 02m Philadelphia	PHL 10:53 → MYR 13:02AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont	5h 36m	94%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON