Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Portland, leaving 14:12, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ORD 14:12 → PDX 16:47AS 325	46m Portland	PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon	7h 11m	77%	75%
Alaska Details →	ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407	2h 35m Seattle	SEA 20:57 → OAK 22:46AS 706	9h 03m	96%	74%
Alaska Details →	ORD 08:22 → SEA 10:18AS 583	1h 59m Seattle	SEA 12:17 → OAK 14:19AS 533	7h 57m	92%	71%
Alaska Details →	ORD 13:01 → SEA 15:42AS 579	1h 34m Seattle	SEA 17:16 → OAK 19:11AS 1328	8h 10m	84%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON