Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 4037 at 10:43 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4037 ORD 10:43 → OKC 13:03 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 435 ORD 13:45 → OKC 15:44 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4037 Envoy	ORD 10:43	OKC 13:03	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 414 SkyWest	ORD 09:30	OKC 11:34	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 5363 SkyWest	ORD 17:09	OKC 19:24	16%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 6337 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:05	OKC 14:18	19%	6%	0.6%	64%
AA 6481 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:14	OKC 18:29	19%	8%	0.6%	62%
UA 1440 United	ORD 20:23	OKC 22:30	20%	9%	0.5%	no record
AA 6493 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:31	OKC 20:48	22%	8%	0.7%	60%
OO 435 SkyWest	ORD 13:45	OKC 15:44	24%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON