Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 4042 at 08:14 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4042 ORD 08:14 → OMA 10:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AA 3334 ORD 22:45 → OMA 00:21 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4042 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:14	OMA 10:04	5%	1%	0.6%	74%
UA 1778 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	OMA 10:27	7%	2%	0.5%	87%
MQ 3558 Envoy	ORD 11:01	OMA 12:39	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3712 Envoy	ORD 19:22	OMA 21:03	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2207 United Flight history →	ORD 15:47	OMA 17:28	13%	4%	0.5%	72%
OO 5744 SkyWest	ORD 10:54	OMA 12:35	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 247 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	OMA 14:17	14%	4%	0.5%	78%
OO 5638 SkyWest	ORD 17:38	OMA 19:14	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 6314 SkyWest	ORD 13:01	OMA 14:42	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2336 United	ORD 21:12	OMA 22:46	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 3334 American Flight history →	ORD 22:45	OMA 00:21	20%	6%	0.6%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON