tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 658 United Flight history → ORD 20:18 ONT 22:51 18% 6% 0.6% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 43m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 8h 47m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → ORD 06:04 → DFW 08:36AA 2896 3h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:24 → ONT 13:48AA 2635 9h 44m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → ORD 12:51 → SFO 15:35UA 1097 3h 31m San Francisco SFO 19:06 → ONT 20:45UA 2478 9h 54m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 52m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 08m 95% 86%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:39 → ONT 11:55AA 2956 8h 55m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:25 → PHX 07:19AA 769 3h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:59 → ONT 12:30AA 2661 9h 05m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 54m Salt Lake City SLC 11:09 → ONT 12:12DL 1173 6h 27m 90% 85%
UnitedDetails → ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 3h 04m San Francisco SFO 16:18 → ONT 17:52UA 393 9h 27m 97% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ORD 13:01 → SEA 15:42AS 579 54m Seattle SEA 16:36 → ONT 19:08AS 592 8h 07m 72% 55%
AmericanDetails → ORD 15:45 → DFW 18:05AA 2531 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:54 → ONT 20:26AA 2147 6h 41m 65% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON