Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4448 ORD 08:21 → ORF 11:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2807 ORD 13:53 → ORF 17:09 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4448 Republic	ORD 08:21	ORF 11:46	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
YX 3664 Republic	ORD 09:00	ORF 12:21	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
YX 4519 Republic	ORD 20:46	ORF 23:56	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 3607 Republic	ORD 17:49	ORF 21:23	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4164 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:52	ORF 18:16	10%	2%	0.7%	87%
UA 2807 United Flight history →	ORD 13:53	ORF 17:09	13%	3%	0.6%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON