Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2300 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 2300 ORD 07:00 → PDX 09:34 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2977 ORD 21:24 → PDX 23:55 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2300 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	PDX 09:34	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
UA 751 United	ORD 09:07	PDX 11:46	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1713 American	ORD 08:13	PDX 10:51	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 325 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 14:12	PDX 16:47	13%	3%	0.6%	72%
UA 1554 United Flight history →	ORD 13:41	PDX 15:29	13%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 2243 United	ORD 20:04	PDX 22:36	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1677 United Flight history →	ORD 16:15	PDX 18:47	14%	4%	0.6%	57%
AA 1818 American Flight history →	ORD 17:25	PDX 19:44	19%	5%	0.6%	71%
AA 2977 American Flight history →	ORD 21:24	PDX 23:55	20%	4%	0.6%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON