Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2970 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 2970 ORD 05:00 → PHL 08:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1848 ORD 17:07 → PHL 20:25 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2970 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	PHL 08:05	5%	2%	0.7%	90%
UA 2856 United	ORD 07:15	PHL 10:22	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 471 American Flight history →	ORD 06:26	PHL 09:51	6%	2%	0.7%	80%
UA 729 United Flight history →	ORD 09:03	PHL 12:17	6%	2%	0.5%	92%
AA 9745 American	ORD 01:15	PHL 04:34	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1725 American	ORD 08:46	PHL 11:56	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2182 United Flight history →	ORD 11:33	PHL 14:47	10%	3%	0.5%	79%
AA 1743 American Flight history →	ORD 11:40	PHL 14:54	13%	3%	0.7%	74%
UA 2430 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	PHL 17:52	14%	3%	0.5%	69%
UA 2825 United Flight history →	ORD 15:52	PHL 19:07	15%	3%	0.5%	69%
AA 830 American	ORD 13:19	PHL 16:38	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1776 United Flight history →	ORD 17:59	PHL 21:19	16%	5%	0.5%	61%
AA 597 American	ORD 18:14	PHL 21:28	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1393 American	ORD 16:07	PHL 19:20	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 532 American Flight history →	ORD 19:30	PHL 22:42	16%	4%	0.7%	62%
AA 2840 American Flight history →	ORD 14:58	PHL 18:13	17%	4%	0.7%	71%
AA 1848 American Flight history →	ORD 17:07	PHL 20:25	18%	5%	0.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON