Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2989 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 2989 ORD 05:01 → PHX 06:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2786 ORD 22:35 → PHX 00:14 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2989 American	ORD 05:01	PHX 06:55	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2795 United	ORD 07:15	PHX 09:06	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 769 American Flight history →	ORD 07:25	PHX 09:09	13%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 2015 United	ORD 15:56	PHX 17:58	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2164 United Flight history →	ORD 11:07	PHX 12:46	15%	3%	0.5%	87%
UA 2053 United Flight history →	ORD 16:02	PHX 17:53	15%	4%	0.5%	79%
UA 2225 United Flight history →	ORD 10:19	PHX 12:00	15%	2%	0.5%	95%worse than usual
UA 1706 United	ORD 13:55	PHX 15:39	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 3137 American Flight history →	ORD 17:07	PHX 19:14	16%	5%	0.6%	63%
AA 1640 American Flight history →	ORD 13:57	PHX 15:49	16%	4%	0.6%	81%
UA 602 United Flight history →	ORD 20:30	PHX 22:27	17%	5%	0.5%	70%
AA 2192 American	ORD 10:34	PHX 12:18	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3277 American	ORD 20:48	PHX 22:53	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2624 American Flight history →	ORD 15:22	PHX 17:05	19%	4%	0.6%	70%
AA 2554 American Flight history →	ORD 19:10	PHX 21:02	20%	5%	0.6%	79%
AA 1767 American	ORD 18:49	PHX 20:45	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2786 American Flight history →	ORD 22:35	PHX 00:14	21%	5%	0.6%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON