Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: YX 3656 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–21%.

Safest bet that day YX 3656 ORD 06:03 → PIT 09:00 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2671 ORD 17:17 → PIT 19:48 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3656 Republic	ORD 06:03	PIT 09:00	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 4478 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:20	PIT 11:07	4%	1%	0.6%	92%
AA 4467 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 09:48	PIT 12:26	5%	1%	0.6%	82%
UA 3432 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:40	PIT 15:23	5%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 1285 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	PIT 09:58	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 3464 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:20	PIT 23:59	6%	2%	0.7%	80%
AA 4527 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:53	PIT 23:33	6%	2%	0.6%	73%
UA 2752 United	ORD 10:29	PIT 13:05	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1349 United Flight history →	ORD 14:25	PIT 17:10	12%	4%	0.5%	72%
UA 1946 United Flight history →	ORD 18:05	PIT 20:51	14%	5%	0.5%	64%
AA 2675 American	ORD 12:33	PIT 15:07	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 5657 SkyWest	ORD 16:23	PIT 18:52	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1051 American	ORD 19:08	PIT 21:48	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2671 American	ORD 17:17	PIT 19:48	21%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON