Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 4798 at 09:32 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–15%.

Safest bet that day YX 4798 ORD 09:32 → PVD 13:03 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1293 ORD 19:14 → PVD 22:43 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4798 Republic	ORD 09:32	PVD 13:03	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1807 United	ORD 07:18	PVD 10:46	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
YX 4797 Republic	ORD 13:40	PVD 17:27	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 5676 SkyWest	ORD 11:14	PVD 14:54	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5691 SkyWest	ORD 18:43	PVD 22:11	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1293 American Flight history →	ORD 19:14	PVD 22:43	15%	4%	0.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON