Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: OO 5232 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–18%.

Safest bet that day OO 5232 ORD 07:08 → PWM 10:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1264 ORD 18:10 → PWM 21:39 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5232 SkyWest	ORD 07:08	PWM 10:55	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 3662 Republic	ORD 15:21	PWM 19:06	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4741 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 13:20	PWM 16:45	11%	2%	0.6%	92%
AA 4504 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:34	PWM 00:09	11%	3%	0.6%	69%
UA 2804 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	PWM 14:31	13%	2%	0.5%	86%
AA 2717 American	ORD 09:24	PWM 12:52	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1264 United	ORD 18:10	PWM 21:39	18%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON