tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2050 United ORD 09:04 RAP 10:32 7% 3% 0.5% no record
MQ 3573 Envoy ORD 10:05 RAP 11:38 7% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rapid City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 2h 23m Denver DEN 10:05 → RAP 11:30UA 4674 · flown by SkyWest 6h 30m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → ORD 08:30 → DFW 11:04AA 1555 3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:49 → RAP 16:25AA 3532 · flown by Envoy 8h 55m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → ORD 17:54 → MSP 19:31DL 1306 2h 14m Minneapolis MSP 21:45 → RAP 22:26DL 3714 · flown by SkyWest 5h 32m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217 2h 18m Denver DEN 11:13 → RAP 12:32UA 1585 6h 27m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → ORD 06:30 → MSP 08:04DL 1717 1h 29m Minneapolis MSP 09:33 → RAP 10:18DL 3971 · flown by SkyWest 4h 48m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769 2h 54m Denver DEN 21:07 → RAP 22:20UA 5303 · flown by SkyWest 7h 08m 95% 87%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:20 → RAP 09:47AA 3768 · flown by Envoy 5h 47m 93% 86%
AmericanDetails → ORD 14:57 → DFW 17:43AA 2429 2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:03 → RAP 21:31AA 3567 · flown by Envoy 7h 34m 91% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON