Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 4354 at 08:18 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 4354 ORD 08:18 → RDU 11:38 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2167 ORD 19:06 → RDU 22:08 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4354 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:18	RDU 11:38	4%	1%	0.6%	90%
YX 3600 Republic	ORD 10:01	RDU 13:05	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2616 United Flight history →	ORD 10:48	RDU 14:01	7%	2%	0.5%	84%
OO 5764 SkyWest	ORD 07:42	RDU 11:00	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1142 United	ORD 13:06	RDU 16:13	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 4503 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 16:18	RDU 19:13	11%	2%	0.6%	65%
AA 2732 American	ORD 11:03	RDU 14:12	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2091 United Flight history →	ORD 15:53	RDU 19:00	13%	3%	0.5%	79%
UA 1989 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	RDU 21:37	16%	4%	0.5%	53%
AA 600 American Flight history →	ORD 21:48	RDU 00:49	20%	5%	0.8%	50%
AA 2949 American Flight history →	ORD 15:42	RDU 18:40	23%	5%	0.7%	74%
AA 2167 American Flight history →	ORD 19:06	RDU 22:08	24%	6%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON