tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Reno on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1993 United ORD 11:08 RNO 13:36 14% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 38m Denver DEN 11:20 → RNO 12:39UA 2167 8h 39m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:00 → LAX 09:33UA 2361 3h 42m Los Angeles LAX 13:15 → RNO 14:58UA 1544 9h 58m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556 2h 58m Los Angeles LAX 12:58 → RNO 14:25DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest 8h 56m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 6h 24m 95% 87%
FrontierDetails → ORD 13:30 → LAS 15:26F9 3647 3h 04m Las Vegas LAS 18:30 → RNO 20:02F9 4241 8h 32m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → ORD 12:32 → SFO 15:05UA 1097 3h 43m San Francisco SFO 18:48 → RNO 20:04UA 581 9h 32m 99% 84%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 14:12 → PDX 16:47AS 325 1h 22m Portland PDX 18:09 → RNO 19:36AS 1324 7h 24m 94% 83%
UnitedDetails → ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 3h 34m San Francisco SFO 16:48 → RNO 18:02UA 2690 9h 37m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ORD 08:02 → SEA 10:37AS 587 1h 05m Seattle SEA 11:42 → RNO 13:29AS 601 7h 27m 72% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON