Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4104 at 08:14 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 4104 ORD 08:14 → ROC 10:58 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 1568 ORD 18:29 → ROC 21:22 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4104 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:14	ROC 10:58	6%	1%	0.6%	81%
UA 5919 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 07:04	ROC 10:04	7%	3%	0.6%	83%
YX 4572 Republic	ORD 22:34	ROC 01:17	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 6316 SkyWest	ORD 16:58	ROC 19:48	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1239 United Flight history →	ORD 15:31	ROC 18:17	18%	5%	0.5%	71%
UA 1568 United Flight history →	ORD 18:29	ROC 21:22	19%	5%	0.5%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON