Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1740 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1740 ORD 07:05 → RSW 11:14 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 3238 ORD 19:12 → RSW 23:13 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1740 United Flight history →	ORD 07:05	RSW 11:14	8%	3%	0.6%	93%
UA 2137 United	ORD 11:10	RSW 15:18	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2437 American Flight history →	ORD 07:10	RSW 11:20	12%	6%	0.7%	47%
UA 2618 United Flight history →	ORD 16:26	RSW 20:34	13%	6%	1.2%	71%
UA 1036 United Flight history →	ORD 09:27	RSW 13:29	16%	4%	0.6%	82%
AA 1742 American	ORD 12:15	RSW 16:14	22%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 2561 American Flight history →	ORD 12:10	RSW 16:08	23%	7%	1.3%	75%
AA 1774 American	ORD 18:50	RSW 22:50	28%	9%	1.9%	no record
AA 3238 American Flight history →	ORD 19:12	RSW 23:13	28%	9%	1.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON