Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2428 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2428 ORD 07:01 → SAN 09:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1861 ORD 19:02 → SAN 21:25 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2428 United Flight history →	ORD 07:01	SAN 09:29	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 660 United Flight history →	ORD 08:46	SAN 11:21	8%	2%	0.6%	84%
AA 2343 American Flight history →	ORD 06:47	SAN 09:25	8%	2%	0.7%	84%
AS 1470 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 06:20	SAN 08:54	10%	1%	0.8%	75%
UA 559 United	ORD 13:41	SAN 16:03	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2131 American Flight history →	ORD 09:54	SAN 12:16	14%	3%	0.6%	74%
UA 2138 United	ORD 16:36	SAN 18:59	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1564 United	ORD 20:30	SAN 22:51	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 1447 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 14:20	SAN 16:59	19%	3%	0.7%	70%
AA 1543 American Flight history →	ORD 15:24	SAN 17:48	21%	4%	0.7%	68%
AA 2994 American	ORD 21:09	SAN 23:34	22%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1861 American Flight history →	ORD 19:02	SAN 21:25	25%	5%	0.7%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	1h 02m Denver	DEN 07:43 → SAN 09:05UA 2309	6h 05m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	6h 23m	91%	80%
American Details →	ORD 13:57 → PHX 15:49AA 1640	1h 14m Phoenix	PHX 17:03 → SAN 18:25AA 480	6h 28m	84%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON