Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 490 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19%.

Safest bet that day UA 490 ORD 09:25 → SAT 12:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 431 ORD 21:19 → SAT 00:10 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 490 United Flight history →	ORD 09:25	SAT 12:29	8%	3%	0.5%	86%
AA 4176 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:03	SAT 18:03	9%	2%	0.7%	80%
UA 2844 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	SAT 16:29	12%	5%	0.5%	75%
AA 2845 American	ORD 11:05	SAT 13:57	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1394 United Flight history →	ORD 19:58	SAT 22:57	19%	6%	0.6%	57%
AA 431 American Flight history →	ORD 21:19	SAT 00:10	19%	7%	0.7%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON