Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 3672 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–10%.

Safest bet that day YX 3672 ORD 07:05 → SDF 09:52 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4940 ORD 14:54 → SDF 17:17 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3672 Republic	ORD 07:05	SDF 09:52	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3582 Envoy	ORD 07:22	SDF 09:58	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3580 Envoy	ORD 11:17	SDF 13:45	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 3605 Republic	ORD 16:30	SDF 19:02	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 3659 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:25	SDF 23:59	9%	3%	0.7%	73%
UA 3598 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:50	SDF 20:23	10%	3%	0.6%	77%
AA 4603 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:59	SDF 23:29	10%	3%	0.7%	75%
OO 5692 SkyWest	ORD 11:02	SDF 13:21	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 4940 SkyWest	ORD 14:54	SDF 17:17	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 4519 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:25	SDF 18:56	34%	11%	5.4%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON