Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2041 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 2041 ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AS 583 ORD 08:22 → SEA 10:18 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2041 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:55	SEA 09:27	9%	2%	0.7%	74%
UA 2099 United Flight history →	ORD 08:45	SEA 11:38	10%	2%	0.5%	83%
UA 341 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	SEA 09:40	11%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 1660 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	SEA 16:09	15%	3%	0.5%	87%
UA 1801 United Flight history →	ORD 16:20	SEA 19:06	15%	3%	0.5%	73%
UA 2211 United Flight history →	ORD 20:32	SEA 23:06	18%	3%	0.5%	59%
AA 2966 American	ORD 10:00	SEA 12:47	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1564 Delta Flight history →	ORD 13:00	SEA 15:44	19%	3%	0.6%	65%
AA 3105 American Flight history →	ORD 07:18	SEA 10:14	20%	3%	0.6%	44%
AA 2392 American	ORD 19:09	SEA 21:59	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 1205 Delta	ORD 17:39	SEA 20:02	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1476 American	ORD 13:03	SEA 15:34	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 579 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 13:01	SEA 15:42	24%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 3231 American	ORD 21:14	SEA 23:39	24%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 407 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 15:43	SEA 18:22	25%	3%	0.6%	68%
AS 587 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 08:02	SEA 10:37	30%	2%	0.6%	64%
AS 337 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 20:11	SEA 22:26	31%	4%	0.6%	49%
AS 583 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 08:22	SEA 10:18	39%	3%	0.7%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON