Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 246 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 246 ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 649 ORD 18:49 → SFO 21:26 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 246 United Flight history →	ORD 06:10	SFO 08:47	6%	1%	0.6%	93%
AA 2885 American	ORD 06:46	SFO 09:43	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1116 United Flight history →	ORD 07:30	SFO 10:19	7%	2%	0.6%	87%
UA 342 United	ORD 08:59	SFO 11:26	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1851 American	ORD 09:39	SFO 12:18	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2106 United Flight history →	ORD 23:05	SFO 01:43	11%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 543 United Flight history →	ORD 10:25	SFO 13:14	11%	4%	0.6%	63%
AA 3115 American Flight history →	ORD 08:35	SFO 11:19	11%	3%	0.7%	93%
UA 1577 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	SFO 17:19	16%	5%	0.5%	74%
UA 1334 United Flight history →	ORD 15:26	SFO 18:18	16%	5%	0.5%	66%
UA 3860 United	ORD 12:43	SFO 15:12	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2437 United	ORD 16:03	SFO 18:39	17%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1097 United Flight history →	ORD 12:51	SFO 15:35	18%	5%	0.5%	79%
AA 2817 American	ORD 13:35	SFO 16:17	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1253 American Flight history →	ORD 15:18	SFO 17:58	19%	5%	0.6%	70%
AA 3202 American	ORD 21:02	SFO 23:42	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1495 United Flight history →	ORD 20:04	SFO 22:57	21%	5%	0.6%	45%
UA 2179 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	SFO 21:18	21%	5%	0.6%	48%
AA 3141 American Flight history →	ORD 17:08	SFO 19:47	21%	5%	0.7%	57%
AA 2856 American	ORD 19:36	SFO 22:19	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 649 United	ORD 18:49	SFO 21:26	23%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	59m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391	6h 18m	97%	85%
United Details →	ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217	48m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	6h 20m	93%	82%
United Details →	ORD 18:17 → DEN 20:22UA 1974	48m Denver	DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123	6h 39m	86%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON