Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3584 at 08:19 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–16%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3584 ORD 08:19 → SGF 09:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5574 ORD 15:55 → SGF 17:36 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3584 Envoy	ORD 08:19	SGF 09:59	7%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 3626 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:30	SGF 19:18	10%	3%	0.7%	72%
MQ 3544 Envoy	ORD 13:03	SGF 14:37	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 5525 SkyWest	ORD 09:04	SGF 10:58	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3596 Envoy	ORD 20:54	SGF 22:22	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 5664 SkyWest	ORD 12:59	SGF 14:43	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 5553 SkyWest	ORD 21:37	SGF 23:18	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 5574 SkyWest	ORD 15:55	SGF 17:36	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 4451 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 21:30	SGF 23:27	13%	7%	11.5%	87%
UA 4529 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:50	SGF 10:44	26%	14%	0.7%	74%
UA 4436 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:45	SGF 14:32	28%	13%	2.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON