Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 15:55, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day


UA 307 United	ORD 09:16	SJC 11:46	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 481 United Flight history →	ORD 19:58	SJC 22:43	18%	5%	0.6%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556	2h 57m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	8h 43m	100%	92%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:09 → SJC 10:52AA 2046	7h 52m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	ORD 15:22 → ATL 18:36DL 1477	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933	9h 27m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 00m	97%	88%
United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 52m Denver	DEN 11:34 → SJC 13:07UA 1256	9h 07m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	ORD 14:42 → LAX 17:14DL 967	3h 33m Los Angeles	LAX 20:47 → SJC 22:10DL 1420	9h 28m	98%	88%
American Details →	ORD 06:04 → DFW 08:36AA 2896	3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:13 → SJC 13:57AA 2834	9h 53m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	6h 50m	95%	87%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ORD 13:01 → SEA 15:42AS 579	48m Seattle	SEA 16:30 → SJC 18:29AS 521	7h 28m	66%	49%
Alaska Details →	ORD 08:02 → SEA 10:37AS 587	48m Seattle	SEA 11:25 → SJC 13:30AS 658	7h 28m	58%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON