Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: American via Charlotte, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 1996 United Flight history →	ORD 08:49	SJU 14:44	9%	2%	0.6%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Juan is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORD 08:51 → IAH 11:51UA 535	3h 12m Houston	IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701	10h 47m	100%	88%
United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	2h 01m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SJU 17:38UA 1339	10h 38m	100%	88%
American Details →	ORD 05:56 → MIA 10:01AA 2452	1h 38m Miami	MIA 11:39 → SJU 14:24AA 1613	7h 28m	100%	87%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	2h 53m Charlotte	CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783	8h 43m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:35 → ATL 09:37DL 1247	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946	9h 04m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882	7h 02m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:30DL 1861	7h 46m	96%	84%
JetBlue Details →	ORD 07:00 → FLL 11:14B6 664	3h 56m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 15:10 → SJU 17:56B6 1453	9h 56m	100%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON