Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1972 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1972 ORD 08:55 → SLC 11:39 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2545 ORD 20:29 → SLC 23:02 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1972 United Flight history →	ORD 08:55	SLC 11:39	6%	2%	0.5%	84%
DL 2231 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:45	SLC 10:15	7%	2%	0.6%	81%
AA 3129 American	ORD 08:11	SLC 10:37	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1955 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	SLC 15:22	13%	3%	0.5%	77%
AA 3258 American Flight history →	ORD 10:04	SLC 12:31	13%	3%	0.6%	70%
DL 1448 Delta	ORD 19:34	SLC 22:08	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1446 Delta	ORD 14:07	SLC 16:29	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1710 United Flight history →	ORD 20:10	SLC 22:48	16%	4%	0.5%	58%
OO 5207 SkyWest	ORD 19:24	SLC 21:12	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1873 American	ORD 12:56	SLC 15:27	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2545 American Flight history →	ORD 20:29	SLC 23:02	19%	5%	0.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON