Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1304 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 1304 ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 1179 ORD 18:01 → SNA 20:24 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1304 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	SNA 11:21	9%	3%	0.5%	79%
AA 1920 American	ORD 08:00	SNA 10:29	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 699 American	ORD 08:08	SNA 10:34	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 661 American	ORD 12:04	SNA 14:45	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 308 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	SNA 22:19	16%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 1317 United Flight history →	ORD 16:16	SNA 18:39	20%	5%	0.5%	70%
AA 1179 American Flight history →	ORD 18:01	SNA 20:24	23%	4%	0.7%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	59m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SNA 09:07UA 2666	6h 07m	97%	89%
United Details →	ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769	57m Denver	DEN 19:10 → SNA 20:40UA 1704	6h 28m	85%	74%
Delta Details →	ORD 15:55 → MSP 17:40DL 1533	48m Minneapolis	MSP 18:28 → SNA 20:20DL 2107	6h 25m	80%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON