tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3680 Republic ORD 07:26 SRQ 11:34 10% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 2287 United Flight history → ORD 11:10 SRQ 15:12 14% 5% 1.2% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 14m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → ORD 15:22 → ATL 18:36DL 1477 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057 6h 30m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 18:12 → SRQ 19:50DL 3109 7h 30m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → ORD 18:11 → ATL 21:19DL 2738 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997 5h 34m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → ORD 06:30 → MSP 08:04DL 1717 1h 33m Minneapolis MSP 09:37 → SRQ 13:49DL 478 6h 19m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → ORD 06:00 → LGA 09:09DL 2767 1h 19m New York LGA 10:28 → SRQ 13:33DL 2412 6h 33m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842 2h 24m Charlotte CLT 10:34 → SRQ 12:39AA 1452 6h 32m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → ORD 14:38 → MIA 19:01AA 791 3h 53m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 8h 21m 100% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORD 17:39 → MIA 22:03AA 2323 51m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 5h 20m 63% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON