Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4645 ORD 15:27 → STL 17:02 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2444 ORD 19:25 → STL 20:53 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4645 Republic	ORD 15:27	STL 17:02	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1044 United	ORD 11:03	STL 12:26	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 5456 SkyWest	ORD 09:25	STL 10:49	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2000 United Flight history →	ORD 14:20	STL 15:46	13%	3%	0.5%	68%
AA 2818 American	ORD 09:03	STL 10:17	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 6355 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:55	STL 13:19	14%	3%	0.6%	67%
UA 1625 United	ORD 20:14	STL 21:37	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 5696 SkyWest	ORD 13:04	STL 14:26	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3069 American Flight history →	ORD 22:53	STL 00:12	15%	4%	0.6%	62%
AA 2444 American	ORD 19:25	STL 20:53	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 4581 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:55	STL 14:23	20%	6%	4.2%	80%
UA 4613 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 09:00	STL 10:34	25%	13%	1.7%	75%
UA 4576 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 22:00	STL 23:29	30%	17%	6.5%	70%
UA 4518 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:45	STL 18:13	33%	18%	3.5%	67%
UA 4412 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 17:55	STL 19:23	44%	22%	2.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON