Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2326 at 07:31 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2326 ORD 07:31 → TPA 11:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1101 ORD 14:47 → TPA 18:29 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2326 United Flight history →	ORD 07:31	TPA 11:24	6%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 2920 American Flight history →	ORD 09:05	TPA 12:56	11%	3%	1.3%	79%
UA 1834 United Flight history →	ORD 11:19	TPA 15:12	11%	4%	0.8%	83%
UA 2244 United	ORD 13:10	TPA 16:59	16%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 1057 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	TPA 18:24	19%	6%	0.9%	76%
UA 1393 United Flight history →	ORD 16:35	TPA 20:22	23%	9%	1.0%	62%
AA 353 American Flight history →	ORD 20:29	TPA 00:19	30%	9%	2.1%	63%
AA 1101 American Flight history →	ORD 14:47	TPA 18:29	30%	8%	1.9%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON