Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4155 at 08:23 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 4155 ORD 08:23 → TUL 10:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 2351 ORD 20:20 → TUL 22:12 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4155 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:23	TUL 10:04	7%	1%	0.7%	86%
MQ 3646 Envoy	ORD 16:57	TUL 19:01	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4098 Envoy	ORD 13:27	TUL 15:11	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4281 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 23:11	TUL 01:07	8%	2%	0.8%	75%
UA 5795 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:45	TUL 11:03	9%	2%	0.5%	80%
OO 5434 SkyWest	ORD 15:55	TUL 17:58	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2351 United	ORD 20:20	TUL 22:12	19%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 4482 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 15:35	TUL 17:42	21%	10%	3.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON