Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via DFW, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Tucson on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 2537 American Flight history →	ORD 09:44	TUS 11:50	11%	3%	0.6%	79%
OO 5928 SkyWest	ORD 12:59	TUS 15:20	16%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tucson is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 11:59 → TUS 12:35DL 937	9h 05m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	ORD 14:42 → LAX 17:14DL 967	2h 07m Los Angeles	LAX 19:21 → TUS 20:59DL 3846 · flown by SkyWest	8h 17m	98%	88%
United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 48m Denver	DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188	8h 32m	100%	88%
American Details →	ORD 15:21 → LAX 17:43AA 529	3h 12m Los Angeles	LAX 20:55 → TUS 22:36AA 6315 · flown by SkyWest	9h 15m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	ORD 15:22 → ATL 18:36DL 1477	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 21:05 → TUS 21:49DL 1251	8h 27m	99%	87%
American Details →	ORD 05:19 → PHX 07:12AA 769	2h 09m Phoenix	PHX 09:21 → TUS 10:26AA 6367 · flown by SkyWest	7h 07m	98%	87%
United Details →	ORD 14:25 → IAH 17:22UA 2062	2h 51m Houston	IAH 20:13 → TUS 20:56UA 1976	8h 31m	97%	86%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:36 → TUS 11:14AA 2187	8h 14m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON