Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3493 at 09:27 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–31%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3493 ORD 09:27 → TVC 11:41 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 677 ORD 19:13 → TVC 21:23 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3493 Envoy	ORD 09:27	TVC 11:41	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 4307 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 12:12	TVC 14:26	13%	2%	0.8%	89%
YX 3500 Republic	ORD 16:27	TVC 18:48	15%	3%	0.9%	no record
OO 5726 SkyWest	ORD 07:33	TVC 09:46	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 6368 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:46	TVC 14:04	16%	5%	0.8%	67%
OO 5563 SkyWest	ORD 10:43	TVC 12:58	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 5877 SkyWest	ORD 10:59	TVC 12:58	23%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 6339 SkyWest	ORD 16:27	TVC 18:46	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 2071 United Flight history →	ORD 21:34	TVC 23:46	27%	8%	0.8%	63%
OO 5704 SkyWest	ORD 13:57	TVC 16:10	28%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 4906 SkyWest	ORD 19:33	TVC 21:43	30%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 677 United	ORD 19:13	TVC 21:23	31%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON