Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2035 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 2035 ORD 07:05 → TYS 09:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 795 ORD 18:27 → TYS 21:00 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2035 United	ORD 07:05	TYS 09:56	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4102 Envoy	ORD 08:12	TYS 10:41	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4105 Envoy	ORD 13:25	TYS 16:03	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3699 Envoy	ORD 20:08	TYS 22:24	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 5719 SkyWest	ORD 14:36	TYS 17:19	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 6344 SkyWest	ORD 18:21	TYS 21:02	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 795 United	ORD 18:27	TYS 21:00	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 4551 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 06:55	TYS 09:43	17%	3%	0.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON