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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 06:30 → MSP 08:04DL 1717 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 10:35 → VPS 13:13DL 2462 6h 43m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048 4h 59m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → ORD 18:11 → ATL 21:19DL 2738 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 5h 18m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 15:45 → VPS 16:03DL 2170 4h 43m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803 4h 58m 95% 85%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842 3h 20m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → VPS 12:16AA 5165 · flown by PSA 7h 09m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → ORD 09:12 → CLT 12:22AA 2080 2h 54m Charlotte CLT 15:16 → VPS 16:02AA 5201 · flown by PSA 6h 50m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:40 → VPS 11:40AA 3089 6h 40m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORD 17:39 → MIA 22:03AA 2323 1h 07m Miami MIA 23:10 → VPS 23:59AA 4300 · flown by Envoy 6h 20m 71% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON