tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2966 ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 3071 ORF 12:10 → ATL 14:08 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time
Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 2966 Delta Flight history → ORF 05:15 ATL 06:54 5% 2% 0.5% 92%
DL 1336 Delta Flight history → ORF 10:16 ATL 12:05 5% 2% 0.5% 91%
DL 1364 Delta Flight history → ORF 06:20 ATL 08:10 5% 2% 0.5% 89%
DL 2925 Delta Flight history → ORF 13:50 ATL 15:44 6% 2% 0.5% 85%
DL 1338 Delta Flight history → ORF 08:00 ATL 09:49 6% 2% 0.5% 90%
DL 2755 Delta Flight history → ORF 12:33 ATL 14:18 7% 2% 0.5% 88%
DL 1346 Delta Flight history → ORF 18:58 ATL 20:55 8% 3% 0.6% 75%
DL 1101 Delta Flight history → ORF 16:55 ATL 18:46 8% 2% 0.5% 67%
F9 3071 Frontier Flight history → ORF 12:10 ATL 14:08 11% 7% 0.7% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON