tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3066 Southwest ORF 12:05 BNA 13:10 9% 2% 0.5% no record
WN 1457 Southwest ORF 12:40 BNA 13:35 10% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 10m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155 5h 54m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 14:24 → BNA 14:37DL 790 5h 21m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:03 → CLT 07:28AA 2717 1h 33m Charlotte CLT 09:01 → BNA 09:33AA 2818 4h 30m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → ORF 18:17 → ATL 20:22DL 2329 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 5h 58m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → ORF 13:50 → ATL 15:44DL 2925 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 19:20 → BNA 19:38DL 1490 6h 48m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:58 → JFK 08:17DL 5356 · flown by Endeavor 3h 21m New York JFK 11:38 → BNA 13:04DL 4662 · flown by Endeavor 7h 06m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → ORF 12:33 → ATL 14:18DL 2755 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:46 → BNA 16:59DL 1693 5h 26m 97% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON