Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, B6 1814 at 19:27, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


B6 1814 JetBlue Flight history →	ORF 19:27	BOS 21:16	16%	6%	0.7%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORF 06:20 → ATL 08:10DL 1364	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	7h 27m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	7h 30m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079	2h 10m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → BOS 12:00DL 2648	5h 55m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	ORF 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1338	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → BOS 14:51DL 1293	6h 51m	99%	90%
American Details →	ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA	2h 50m Philadelphia	PHL 10:30 → BOS 12:03AA 1416	5h 40m	98%	90%
American Details →	ORF 17:27 → DCA 18:33AA 5601 · flown by PSA	3h 07m Washington	DCA 21:40 → BOS 23:09AA 4668 · flown by Republic	5h 42m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	ORF 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 1336	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726	6h 28m	99%	89%
American Details →	ORF 05:29 → CLT 06:56AA 3130	1h 39m Charlotte	CLT 08:35 → BOS 10:56AA 1151	5h 27m	97%	89%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ORF 12:07 → JFK 13:44DL 5370 · flown by Endeavor	46m New York	JFK 14:30 → BOS 16:08DL 5595 · flown by Republic	4h 01m	59%	52%
Delta Details →	ORF 14:44 → LGA 16:21DL 5329 · flown by Endeavor	1h 18m New York	LGA 17:39 → BOS 18:48DL 5819 · flown by Republic	4h 04m	72%	50%
Delta Details →	ORF 19:21 → LGA 20:56DL 5348 · flown by Endeavor	57m New York	LGA 21:53 → BOS 23:10DL 5839 · flown by Republic	3h 49m	37%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON