Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 407 ORF 06:05 → BWI 07:13 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1251 ORF 15:21 → BWI 16:28 · 6% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 4% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 407 Southwest	ORF 06:05	BWI 07:13	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4910 Southwest	ORF 06:07	BWI 07:16	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 159 Southwest	ORF 12:07	BWI 13:13	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4469 Southwest	ORF 08:48	BWI 09:58	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1251 Southwest	ORF 15:21	BWI 16:28	6%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON