Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 12 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2072 ORF 10:09 → CLT 11:32 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2651 ORF 16:55 → CLT 18:19 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2072 American Flight history →	ORF 10:09	CLT 11:32	8%	2%	0.9%	86%
AA 1017 American	ORF 10:24	CLT 11:49	8%	2%	1.0%	no record
AA 5036 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 06:46	CLT 08:20	9%	4%	0.6%	84%
OH 9955 PSA	ORF 11:33	CLT 13:03	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3130 American Flight history →	ORF 05:29	CLT 06:56	11%	7%	0.4%	85%
AA 1255 American	ORF 14:28	CLT 15:56	11%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 5598 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 15:52	CLT 17:16	14%	4%	0.6%	91%
AA 2200 American Flight history →	ORF 15:31	CLT 16:56	14%	3%	0.9%	88%
AA 1211 American Flight history →	ORF 14:41	CLT 16:08	15%	3%	0.9%	90%
AA 2717 American Flight history →	ORF 06:03	CLT 07:28	17%	7%	0.4%	100%worse than usual
AA 2519 American Flight history →	ORF 17:49	CLT 19:14	18%	3%	0.9%	81%
AA 2651 American	ORF 16:55	CLT 18:19	18%	3%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON