Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 5520 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 5520 ORF 06:00 → DCA 06:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 5509 ORF 11:20 → DCA 12:30 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5520 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 06:00	DCA 06:59	8%	5%	0.7%	92%
AA 5601 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 17:27	DCA 18:33	27%	10%	0.7%	50%
AA 5509 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 11:20	DCA 12:30	28%	6%	0.6%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON