Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day


UA 2270 United Flight history →	ORF 08:00	DEN 10:00	12%	3%	0.2%	85%
WN 673 Southwest	ORF 16:29	DEN 18:31	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORF 06:53 → ATL 08:54DL 1364	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 12:16 → DEN 13:25DL 957	8h 32m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 10:36 → DEN 11:45DL 706	8h 30m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	ORF 13:20 → ATL 15:22DL 2925	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 18:51 → DEN 20:02DL 746	8h 42m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	ORF 15:10 → ATL 17:12DL 1101	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 21:09 → DEN 22:20DL 493	9h 10m	98%	86%
United Details →	ORF 05:56 → IAH 08:21UA 6331 · flown by Mesa	2h 23m Houston	IAH 10:44 → DEN 12:28UA 2787	8h 32m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	ORF 10:56 → ATL 12:58DL 1336	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	9h 00m	100%	85%
American Details →	ORF 06:05 → CLT 07:30AA 2717	1h 04m Charlotte	CLT 08:34 → DEN 10:11AA 1328	6h 06m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	ORF 07:00 → MSP 09:23DL 5464 · flown by Endeavor	1h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → DEN 12:05DL 2927	7h 05m	91%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORF 15:33 → CLT 16:58AA 2200	47m Charlotte	CLT 17:45 → DEN 19:12AA 1284	5h 39m	70%	48%
American Details →	ORF 06:05 → CLT 07:30AA 2717	50m Charlotte	CLT 08:20 → DEN 09:49AA 1410	5h 44m	55%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON