Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3869 ORF 11:43 → DFW 14:14 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2282 ORF 15:12 → DFW 17:41 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3869 Envoy	ORF 11:43	DFW 14:14	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2274 American Flight history →	ORF 07:03	DFW 09:28	10%	3%	0.6%	84%
AA 2282 American Flight history →	ORF 15:12	DFW 17:41	16%	5%	0.6%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54DL 2966	46m Atlanta	ATL 07:40 → DFW 08:54DL 839	4h 39m	86%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON