Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1079 ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OO 3737 ORF 17:03 → DTW 19:01 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1079 Delta Flight history →	ORF 06:05	DTW 07:55	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 3066 Delta	ORF 12:49	DTW 14:52	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 3737 SkyWest	ORF 17:03	DTW 19:01	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 4653 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 12:37	DTW 14:43	40%	23%	2.1%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON